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kottke.org posts about demographics

A 2020 Overview of Global Population Trends

posted by Jason Kottke   Feb 12, 2020

Demography is destiny, or so the saying goes. So this YaleGlobal report on the global population trends is worth paying attention to if you want to know where the world (and world politics) is going. Here’s the gist:

The world population now stands at 7.8 billion inhabitants, having reached the 7 billion milestone in 2011. Demographers expect the 8 billion milestone in 2023, with global population projected to reach 9 billion by 2037 and 10 billion by 2056. This growth is slightly faster than projections from just a few years ago.

World population currently grows at 1 percent annually, having peaked at 2.1 percent in 1968. That annual growth rate is expected to continue declining, reaching 0.5 percent by midcentury. The current annual increase of world population is 81 million, lower than the peak level of 93 million in 1988. Annual additions are projected to continue declining, reaching 48 million by 2050. Of the nearly 2 billion increase in world population expected by midcentury, most will take place in less developed regions. Africa leads, expected to add more than 1 billion people over the coming three decades, followed by Asia with about 650 million. Europe’s population, in contrast, is projected to decrease by 37 million over this period.

2020 World Population

India will soon pass China as the most populous country in the world and Nigeria’s population will double to blow right by the US for #3 in the world:

Two countries have reached the billion mark: China and India, each with current populations of 1.4 billion, reached that milestone in 1980 and 1997, respectively. India’s current rate of demographic growth is double China’s, 1.0 versus 0.5 percent. India’s population could overtake China’s by 2027. No other country is expected to reach a billion during the 21st century. Nigeria, projected to grow to 733 million by century’s close, will move into third place by midcentury, overtaking the United States, anticipated to have 434 million people by 2100.

The populations of some countries will more than double by the middle of this century while the populations in other countries will decline:

The population growth is extraordinary, with most occurring in the world’s poorer countries. More than 50 developing countries, most in Africa, post growth rates no less than 2 percent per annum. By midcentury about half of those countries are projected to see their populations more than double, including Angola, Burkina Faso, Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Tanzania and Uganda.

At the same time, some 20 countries, particularly more developed countries, navigate uncharted demographic territory of population decline and rapid aging. These include Greece, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland and Spain. This number could nearly triple by midcentury, and expected newcomers to population decline will soon include China, Germany, Russia and South Korea.

Six Maps that Reveal America’s Expanding Racial Diversity

posted by Jason Kottke   Sep 17, 2019

Using 2020 census estimates, a series of six maps and the accompanying article from William H. Frey at the Brookings Institution show how the racial makeup on the United States is expected to have changed since the last census in 2010.

Map Census 2020

Hispanics and Asian Americans are the fastest-growing racial minority groups nationally, increasing by 18.6% and 27.4%, respectively, from 2010 to 2018. There is also a growing dispersion of both groups to new destinations, which tend to lie further afield than the familiar large metro areas.

In 1990, 39% of all U.S. Hispanics resided in just four metro areas: Los Angeles, New York, Miami, and Chicago. In 2018, 39% of U.S. Hispanics resided in seven metro areas, with Houston, Riverside, Calif., and Dallas added to the list (and each eclipsing Chicago in size). And beyond these, Hispanic growth is high in areas with smaller Hispanic settlements in all parts of the country.

If only 100 people lived on Earth…

posted by Jason Kottke   Mar 06, 2017

Because many people have trouble with very large numbers, what if you reimagined the billions of humans on Earth as a slightly more manageable number? Say, 100? If 100 people represented the current population of the Earth:

25 people would be 0-14 years old
31 would be Christian
23 would be Muslim
15 would be Hindu
6 would speak Spanish
5 would speak English
54 would be urban dwellers
11 would live on less than $1.90 USD per day
95 live in an area with a mobile-cellular network

And some that are not on that page:

1 person would die every 15 months
2 people would be born every 6 months
1350 people would have died, all-time

An older, smaller developed world

posted by Jason Kottke   Nov 29, 2015

From the WSJ, a big package on how life will be in 35 years: 2050: Demographic Destiny. In the developed world, the future will be smaller.

Next year, the world’s advanced economies will reach a critical milestone. For the first time since 1950, their combined working-age population will decline, according to United Nations projections, and by 2050 it will shrink 5%.

As Dave Pell writes in Nextdraft:

In other words, it turns out that the big problem in the world isn’t that there are too many people, but rather that there are too few (Thanksgiving dinners excepted).

The Old Age Age

posted by Jason Kottke   Apr 09, 2010

This is likely the pull-quote of the week (I’ve seen it on about 20 sites in the last 10 minutes):

Of all the people in human history who ever reached the age of 65, half are alive now.

But only by a little…there’s lots more to chew on in the full article. Like how 65 became the retirement age:

The idea of a retirement age was invented by Otto von Bismarck in the 1880s, when as chancellor of Germany he needed a starting age for paying war pensions. He chose the age of 65 because that was typically when ex-soldiers died.

US migration maps

posted by Jason Kottke   Mar 17, 2009

Pew Research Center’s interactive maps of migration flows in the US are pretty interesting. The region map makes it seem as though the Northeast is rapidly losing population to the South but the states map clarifies the picture…the flow looks to be hundreds of thousands of retirees moving to Florida and Georgia.

19.20.21 (19 cities in the world with 20 million people

posted by Jason Kottke   Nov 12, 2007

19.20.21 (19 cities in the world with 20 million people in the 21st century) is a nice site for an effort to undertake “a five-year study that will encompass all aspects of the phenomenon of supercities” but the real attraction are the maps of the world’s largest cities through time (Menu/10 Largest Cities). In 1000, the largest city in the world was Cordova, Spain and by 1500, 4 of the top 10 were in China and one was in Nepal. (via snarkmarket)

An analysis of how populations are growing

posted by Jason Kottke   May 11, 2007

An analysis of how populations are growing and shifting around the US, with a focus on the policital consequences. He splits the country into four main areas: Coastal Megalopolises, Interior Boomtowns, Rust Belt, and Static Cities. “The bad news for them is that the Coastal Megalopolises grew only 4% in 2000-06, while the nation grew 6%. […] You see an entirely different picture in the 16 metro areas I call the Interior Boomtowns (none touches the Atlantic or Pacific coasts). Their population has grown 18% in six years.”

The must-see link for today is Social

posted by Jason Kottke   Mar 08, 2007

The must-see link for today is Social Explorer. Jump right to the maps section or to the New York City % White 1910-2000 and the the New York City % Black 1910-2000 slideshows. Running the shows forward, you can see blacks settling into Harlem, Brooklyn, and Queens and then spreading out from there. I wish it were slightly easier to make slideshows, but it’s still really fun to play around with all the maps. (via vsl)

Nine months after the World Cup, Germany

posted by Jason Kottke   Feb 22, 2007

Nine months after the World Cup, Germany is experiencing a baby boom, which is good news because Germany’s birth rate is among the lowest in the world.

Clever demographic data visualizations using faces ripped

posted by Jason Kottke   Feb 05, 2007

Clever demographic data visualizations using faces ripped out of the SkyMall catalog.

Breathing Earth is a map of the

posted by Jason Kottke   Oct 12, 2006

Breathing Earth is a map of the earth that shows, in realtime, births, deaths, and carbon dioxide consumption of the world’s countries. Mesmerizing to watch. (via snarkmarket)

Morning subway demographics in NYC. Early morning

posted by Jason Kottke   May 23, 2006

Morning subway demographics in NYC. Early morning blue collar workers give way to late morning white collar workers. (via capn)

Demographic charts for New York City using

posted by Jason Kottke   Apr 17, 2006

Demographic charts for New York City using data from 1790 to the present.

The demographic transition model

posted by Jason Kottke   Jun 10, 2005

The demographic transition model.