If you’re curious about how USA’s Kristen Faulkner shocked the top riders in the women’s road race, these threads go into some of the strategy involved. “Road cycling is built upon prisoner’s dilemmas like this.”
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I knew that posting this would reveal a clearer explanation of Faulkner's attack and victory: Why didn't they chase?
(via @probablegoat)
I have nothing to add, other than to say that it's pretty cool to see a bunch of guys enthusiastically and thoughtfully discussing women's sports on the internet.
As another thread poster noted:
See also the 400x400 mixed relay last leg. It's like asking Kaylyn Brown to just run faster.
Also, Faulkner's attack came at the end of hours of racing.
I think this is partly true, but there's a tactical element too. I would hazard a guess that Kopecky might have been able to stay with Faulkner if she'd reacted straight away, but she hesitated knowing that she'd also be helping Vos stay at the front, who would then beat them all in the sprint. That hesitation then meant Faulkner had too much headstart.
I just watched the last 20 minutes of the race and it's incredible how much gas Faulkner had left in the tank. Amazing to watch.
She didn't look like she was breathing heavily. Incredible. Some great cycling this weekend.
This article on the experience of American rider Matteo Jorgenson in the men's road race identifies a similar dynamic: Every time he tried to bridge the gap to the leaders, other riders would sit on his wheel without helping. Rather than drag them to the front where they could out-sprint him, he would sit up and go back to the chase pack. He finished 9th overall, even though he felt he had the conditioning for a better result.
https://velo.outsideonline.com/olympics/matteo-jorgenson-stymied-by-french-tactics-in-top-10-olympic-brawl-they-were-not-racing-for-the-win/
As a former (amateur) competitive cyclist you see breakaways like this happen all the time during the race and it's always a gamble whether you chase or not. If you chase you might drag the rider behind you up to the attacker without them spending nearly the energy you do. If you don't chase you might get to be the person that takes advantage of your opponents effort. If no one chases that attacker might gas out and you'll have lost nothing for having let themselves gas out. It's always a chess game and your energy is finite, perhaps you yourself are already on the rivet and couldn't chase even if you wanted to.
As a (very low level) bike racer and big cycling fan, it's always so interesting to me to watch tactics. When Faulkner and Kopecky were trying to get up to Vos/Vas, they always made more ground when Faulkner was on the front. I thought maybe this was some gamesmanship from Kopecky, trying to save energy to attack once they bridged. Kopecky would have been the first one to see Faulkner's attack and couldn't follow which makes me think she was fatigued. Vas/Vos were out alone on front for longer and fatigued as such. Once Faulkner attacked I'm not sure any of the three could close the gap, even if they wanted. I love how Faulkner raced to win.
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