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If you’re curious about how USA’s Kristen Faulkner shocked the top riders in the women’s road race, these threads go into some of the strategy involved. “Road cycling is built upon prisoner’s dilemmas like this.”

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Jason KottkeMOD Edited

I knew that posting this would reveal a clearer explanation of Faulkner's attack and victory: Why didn't they chase?

Even in the moment, letting Faulkner go seemed like an obvious mistake. But it's easy to judge such moments from afar, when you're safely removed from the stress and exertion of the race, and from the split-second thinking that's required while under duress. So let's take a step back and work through what happened in that moment and why.

(via @probablegoat)

Caroline G.

I have nothing to add, other than to say that it's pretty cool to see a bunch of guys enthusiastically and thoughtfully discussing women's sports on the internet.

Janson Hartliep

As another thread poster noted:

This sounds like my dad asking me after my last mile race in the state track meet my senior year “Son, why did you let that guy pass you at the end?”

See also the 400x400 mixed relay last leg. It's like asking Kaylyn Brown to just run faster.

Also, Faulkner's attack came at the end of hours of racing.

Stephen Mc

I think this is partly true, but there's a tactical element too. I would hazard a guess that Kopecky might have been able to stay with Faulkner if she'd reacted straight away, but she hesitated knowing that she'd also be helping Vos stay at the front, who would then beat them all in the sprint. That hesitation then meant Faulkner had too much headstart.

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Jason KottkeMOD

I just watched the last 20 minutes of the race and it's incredible how much gas Faulkner had left in the tank. Amazing to watch.

Mary Wallace

She didn't look like she was breathing heavily. Incredible. Some great cycling this weekend.

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Peter Morgan

This article on the experience of American rider Matteo Jorgenson in the men's road race identifies a similar dynamic: Every time he tried to bridge the gap to the leaders, other riders would sit on his wheel without helping. Rather than drag them to the front where they could out-sprint him, he would sit up and go back to the chase pack. He finished 9th overall, even though he felt he had the conditioning for a better result.
https://velo.outsideonline.com/olympics/matteo-jorgenson-stymied-by-french-tactics-in-top-10-olympic-brawl-they-were-not-racing-for-the-win/

Mike Riley

As a former (amateur) competitive cyclist you see breakaways like this happen all the time during the race and it's always a gamble whether you chase or not. If you chase you might drag the rider behind you up to the attacker without them spending nearly the energy you do. If you don't chase you might get to be the person that takes advantage of your opponents effort. If no one chases that attacker might gas out and you'll have lost nothing for having let themselves gas out. It's always a chess game and your energy is finite, perhaps you yourself are already on the rivet and couldn't chase even if you wanted to.

Nicole Swan

As a (very low level) bike racer and big cycling fan, it's always so interesting to me to watch tactics. When Faulkner and Kopecky were trying to get up to Vos/Vas, they always made more ground when Faulkner was on the front. I thought maybe this was some gamesmanship from Kopecky, trying to save energy to attack once they bridged. Kopecky would have been the first one to see Faulkner's attack and couldn't follow which makes me think she was fatigued. Vas/Vos were out alone on front for longer and fatigued as such. Once Faulkner attacked I'm not sure any of the three could close the gap, even if they wanted. I love how Faulkner raced to win.

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